So where am I going with this? Let's talk about this from a traders perspective. My premise is that trading methodology cannot be said to be functioning, hence it is an oxymoron per definition. This is something I want to make very clear from the start. Meaning that once you find something appearing true you simply cannot know if it is. And any amount of testing or mathematics just can't prove a methodology, albeit there are some thing we can prove. We cannot be certain about the future if we cannot prove it. Thus we must try and see what happens which is a good thing. Bare with me now because this is where a parallel of trading/sports and also life comes into play, since I am a firm believer that thee three are linked here.
Because it is my own belief, I think, that if you do something regardless of the outcome good things should come from it. Let me give an example where you are training to win a tournament in chess. While thinking about this, training and also playing many games a person comes to realize that he likes to play this game. Later though while at said tournament he ends up in third place, instantly feeling depressed and not liking it. Later though and this it is my opinion, the hidden learning part is that the competitor learned many things. Even though he only placed third he learned many things like, how to play a certain way making him be better the next time, he also meet some new people that thought him some new thought patterns. Now let's say that the next tournament he goes to his arch rival is a bit ill and given his new ideas he now places first. I bet it felt nice to win but he probably did not think about it that way when he placed third.
This also happens in trading, where many times a position goes against you only to end up in favor in the end. Precisely like the chess competitor is it not? Well in my experience that we cannot but persist since how are we to tell if a given attempt is one of the good or bad ones? I claim that we must think about our mindset when it comes to both trading and sports, to not forget about the plan, because sticking to a policy or a preplanned route becomes the most important thing. As does the presence of discipline.
"assume nothing just keep testing" and just work with developing that. here is the core idea.
The purpose and reason for me writing this then comes to my understanding that one simply cannot by definition "know" actual profitability, i.e if a strategy works. Rather what we can know, is irrelevant, if a policy is mathematically solid meaning profitably and thus one should despite psychological setbacks just keep going. Because setbacks although present in real account value are by them selves each their own steps towards the goal of making money even though I to also know that it can be though at times. Really the only thing we can do is to keep on, what else is there? Since apparently loosing, here not placing first in a chess tournament or taking a bad trade obviously leads to personal development. Is this not the correct way to go about it? As long as we have good general guidelines/a good coach that is. So this is where I leave you for this time and as always in trading, training and in life we must persist.. but did you know that?